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The problem I see with Nyquist is he just hasn't run fast enough yet to justify favoritism. Even if this crop is subpar, there are many faster than him.
-Let's use 2 of the more reputable services for figures.. Beyer and TG.
-Let's use the modern era (last 15 years)
-Let's only consider only main track routes (no sprints)
Of the Derby winners in the last 15 years, here are the horses that had slower figures than Nyquist...
Gaicomo- TG only
Mine that Bird- TG and Beyer
Animal Kingdom- TG only (by 1/4 pt) * this was poly which will compress figures
These horses were 50-1, 50-1 and 20-1
Personally I like to get value for my wagers and while speed figures are not the end all be all, I'm not taking 7/2 in a 20 horse field when the horse needs to improve.
Can he win? Sure. Doesn't mean he isn't a horrific underlay.
Once again, 3 favorites in a row and AP winning the triple crown have made some people lose their grip on reality.
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