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Originally Posted by Actor
I've ordered Carroll's book. Amazon says I will get in one or two weeks.
Meanwhile I have doubts as to whether the actual physical length of a horse has anything to do with what is reported. For all I know a length is the distance between the poles holding up the rail. Or the person coming up with this data simply loads the video into his computer, watches it on a video editor, comes up with the actual time a horse was behind the leader (video is 30 frames per second), then applies the 5 lengths per second rule to get the reported lengths.
The actual speed of a horse at any given call will vary with the length of the race and the class. A $10,000 claimer may be going faster at the first call in a five furlong sprint than a G1 stakes horse at the finish of a mile and a quarter.
If a video camera were installed at each call then each horses actual time at each call could be reported. But with the industry dying no one is going to make that investment.
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That is what TRAKUS is doing in a different way by electronically tracking every horse, not just the leader, at each point of call. With this method the length of the horse is irrelevant. This is quite a difficult technological undertaking and one must expect occasional errors.
True, as far as adjustments for beaten lengths, the beaten lengths reported can vary for a number of reasons but if we are using the wrong measurement for a length to begin with this introduces an additional source of inaccuracy. All we can do is at least begin with accurate information to begin with. Small errors in premises of how long a length is are multiplied by the distance of the race which covers many lengths.
There are also methods for beaten lengths that do not involve class but something more accurate
to calculate how far behind the leader is in terms of time by using the horses actual velocity, to estimate how long it will take a horse to cover the time it's behind the leader.
