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[MJC922]

Ideally for post race assessment you will want to know what the expected fractions are for the final time of the race. This takes a lot of data to do properly. When I made time based figures I started with a baseline average for each track \ dist \ surface and then figured out how it needed to be adjusted for any final time at the distance. At least according to my testing and development it isn't a linear relationship as some believe, i.e. if par for 1:10.0 is 22.0 45.0 early then par fractions for a half mile at 1:14.0 aren't 64.2% of 74 seconds nor is there a 2 second difference (half = 47 seconds as Quirin suggested). Those are ballpark ways but if you want it to be right you do the studies and you'll likely come up with what I did. The problem is once you have the expected fractions you need to inspect them on the day for imbalances. I.e. if the stretch segments were slow all day long relative to the their final times then you need to adjust for what were likely headwinds in the stretch and tailwinds on the backstretch. You can use every horse's time for this, don't just use winners or the horse's that set the fractions. So what you end up with if done properly are variants for each segment of the track that are wind adjusted. This should be done before track variants are even created for the card because the distances will then be balanced 1-turn, 2-turn can be combined if this is done properly.

Do you need to get this scientific? No not at all. Minimally though you need to at least know what normal fractions are for your track and by close observation of trips and race flow you will be able to form pretty good conclusions regarding the effect of pace on the various horses.

After a while you will understand if baseline is 22.0 45.0 1:10.0 any race where you see 22.0 44.3 1:10.0 presented a serious challenge for anyone who was racing three or four wide battling for the lead turning for home, that horse will be overextended and empty in the stretch unless it's far and away the best horse.