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[MJC922]

I suspect ground loss i.e. paths out at the apex of each turn (if equibase ever provides it) would increase the accuracy of everyone's numbers a slight bit. From a trip handicapping standpoint though I look at ground loss as a factor that carries more or less weight relative to position depending upon the pace of the race.

The way I trip handicap is more evidence based and track specific, I mean if a certain trip at a certain track and distance almost never wins then the degree of difficulty is obvious. You may teach a newbie for example fourth on the rail with a stalking trip is considered to be easy but there are situations with race flow where being bottled up waiting for room while the pace quickens is not so good for your chances of winning, there are times when you need to use that segment to assert and overextend opponents, and if you're on hold awaiting room the chance is lost. You may run well, you may not get beat by much and it may have little impact on your final time but relative to position you may not win very many races with that trip.

There are so many variations, three path on the turn loose in front, three path between horses, three path chasing a fast first quarter, slow first quarter, hard ridden or in hand etc... if you observe eventual winners then you see what wins and what doesn't and can evaluate impact.

I look at races as a series of mini skirmishes where horses run one another off their feet at key points by asserting their class and the eventual final time is just a stitched together byproduct of those skirmishes. It may align with quality of the horse's efforts but sometimes not so much.