Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
His three winners today:
Race 3, 9 horse. This was her second start in the new barn. Her last three starts on dirt (had a lot of better figure turf races) she had run 68, 70, and 70 with the last one for Diodoro. Today, second time out off a big drop in class, she ran a 77. She won by 10+ lengths but this one wasn't all that eye popping for me.
Race 5, 2 horse. This is a horse that started his career with big promise but never really materialized. He claimed him off Asmussen for 50k and had already run twice. Last start for Asmussen horse ran a 111 figure. He was dismal in his first try, then rebounded to finish a good third with a 108 next time. Today, he was back in for a 50k tag (first tag for Diodoro) and won and ran a 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure. But that doesn't really tell the whole story. The horse had a pretty rough trip. Don't think that 105 really tells how well he ran today. He got claimed away by Chris Richard, will be interesting to follow this one. They made some money on this one I would think since the claim was for the same price he was taken for by Diodoro and he had a win and a third for big purses at Oaklawn in just short of four months.
Race 7, the 8 horse. Another recently acquired by Diodoro. This was his third start since taking over for Shireffs, all at Oaklawn. This was a horse with talent that doesn't win much. He was 1 for 16 coming in but had run as high as a 110 speed figure a while back. His last four for Shireffs, most recent first, were 100, 96, 103, 94. For Diodoro he ran a 107 first time out after leading then getting caught late. Second time out he ran fourth but was beaten just over a length in a very tough allowance race, this time getting a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Today, he won with a 117 speed figure.
Just from these winners, they aren't the huge jumps one sees with some other trainers, but they are noticeable. They also don't seem to be immediate. The first horse improved 7 points, took two starts to do it. The second winner didn't improve numerically, but the trip probably disguised that a little bit. Maybe he would have run around the 111 he ran for Asmussen but that is about it. So in three starts, he got a win but no real improvement. The third winner has basically improved 17 points in just three starts. It was gradual though, not a huge leap, and he only got the one win.
If someone asked me do I suspect this guy of being a Servis or Navarro based on his winners today, I'd say probably not but he'd be on my radar. But overall, I pulled up his stats first time with the trainer this year at Oaklawn. I found it hard to believe he has had 40 already, but he has. Of those he has won with 30% and an ROI of $2.23 per $2 bet. That sets off bells for me. It didn't matter much whether the new horse was a claim or acquired by other means, the numbers were similar.
We'll see what happens, but I don't usually think those kind of numbers are superior horsemanship, especially at a meet like Oaklawn that has big, deep fields full of horses trained by top guys.
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Thanks for the dive into Diodoro CJ,appreciate.
I know this is a Saffie thread,I'll try to cover my Diodoro thoughts sort of quickly.
Timeline on the Diodoro suspicions:
I hadn't looked hard at PP's for a couple years......but I started up again @ OP.
The Diodoro red flags came fast......and continued.
His ratio of winners to runner ups (large enough sample) is over 2 to 1......take a look at everybody else at the current OP meet,the other barns numbers fall properly.
His horses seem to fire large more then even the best trainers can hope for,it's just amazing.
Oaklawn is a hard place to win a race,the field size is large.......and barns point straight at that meet.........apparently not so hard for Diodoro.
For example:
Asmussen: 18%.....kind of low for him.
Sadler: 15%
Hollendorfer: 10%
McLean Robertson: 8%
Tom Amoss: 12%
Norman McKnight: 7%
Cipriano Contreras: 13%
Genao Garcia: 6%
Karl the chemical Broberg: 8%
Let's give Oaklawn a ton of credit here.........outside of Diodoro,the major medication barns are getting smoked........that's why I think Diodoro has the undetectable stuff.
Diodoro has been popping the entire meet with horses that should win at about 50% of the time (or less) of what they're doing........his fresh stock is coming from all corners......and alot of the horses look to be common at best.....very suspicious.
The Oaklawn morning line maker is sharp.......he doesn't miss alot......the Diodoro hot action is making him look bad........all the pools are getting swamped with Diodoro money.
When the Diodoro horses win they skate........it's like they aren't even blowing hard.
Diodoro doesn't have a barn full of stakes/classy types.......his horses fall under the category of those who should be "hard to hold together".......his win % should reflect that.
And ask yourself this.......is Diodoro that much a better horseman than all the other high profile barns @ Oaklawn ?
From the jump......opening day......all the way through last Sunday, his horses have been on the nitro button.......all things considered that's very,very hard to do.
Now Oaklawn Park.....
I'm only guessing here,I think they're trying real hard to catch this guy......but it's hard when the stuff just doesn't show.
I also think at some point soon they're going to play the "we can't prove it......we don't care.......knock it off or you're gone" card.
To Oaklawns credit, the other chemical types are sinking hard.
