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I wait until they have run for three weeks so there is some data to work with.
For the conditions that have been run I copy pars from a track that I would expect to be similar (same state usually).
Those pars and the race times are used to make crude par times. With par times and the three weeks results I can make variants for the races run; my variants use pars but 95% of the information used is projection from previous races.
With all of my variants I recalculate every few weeks to take account of more recent events so with these crude variants I would immediately recalculate all of the pars, par times and variants a few times to converge them to more accurate values.
Since I have no interest in betting Az tracks (interest level in race betting not what it used to be; there are not enough playable races and edge to make it worthwhile) I will probably not bother with the new tracks this time.
Had to do this quite a bit over the years for on-going tracks when they changed the layout or made major changes to the surface and it has generally worked out well.
Last edited by sjk; 04-21-2019 at 04:59 AM.
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