Quote:
Originally Posted by Pensacola Pete
Two major factors are believed to be the reason behind the team's demise. First and foremost is the increase in cheating that has broken out in the past 18 months.
Second was a counter-team, which bet their selections early and hard, thus creating false overlays that Flyer's team and other "balancers" would bet into, which raised the price of the entries bet by the counter team to reasonable levels.
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I'm not sure I understand either of these.
1. What kind of cheating are we talking about and where is the evidence for it?
2. If I make an odds line, there's nothing anyone can do to alter my decision making unless they bet AFTER me.
Let's say I make the fair odds on a horse 2-1 and he's 5-1 now because someone else bet another horses early in the betting. Most likely he's going to drift down regardless of whether I bet. But when I make that decision it will be based on his price at that time and how much lower I think he might go on the last flash. I would give myself some margin of safety.
Unless the team was using money flows as part of their odds line and the different flows were throwing their formula off, early betting should have no impact. If early flows did throw off their algorithm, then I'm going to say things like this were inevitable and they didn't have a very good model (or didn't it adjust properly). How money flows into the pools is not fixed long term.
