Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Arlo
Thanks very much, Charlie.
I guess the main thing I'd ask is do the JCapper UDMs depend on past results to predict future outcomes? I only know what I've read here, and I'm in no way an expert, but that seems to be a reasonable criticism. I do see where you can use JCapper data to handicap using pace or speed, but the UDMs seem to be the centerpiece of the program. Again, I'm only formulating questions based on the things I've read here at PA. I don't really have an educated opinion yet.
|
That's a good question, and I guess it depends on how you use it.
You
could create a UDM that showed a 1.1 ROI over the last season, and then you
could apply that UDM to this season expecting the same 1.1 ROI. I don't think that would be very smart though, and the chances of it performing the same way the next season as it did the last are slim to none.
The way I use UDM's is to flag horses that I should take a closer look at based on criteria that have continuously shown a good ROI. I go through and look at combinations and criteria that have performed well, and create UDm's based on those. Then, when I look at my report in the AM, I'll see which horses have been flagged as being worth a closer look.
I also continuously update my UDM's. I'm not sure if this is what other users do, but if a criteria that worked great last year is a detriment this year, then I'm going to make that UDM innactive so that I don't think it's flagging a positive item.
