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Forcing the offtrack wagering sites to close early is one way to help. It's true in NY the OTBs did close at 2 minutes to post back when I played fulltime in the mid-80s to mid-90s. Most (all?) NY OTB is gone as far as I know but the rule could apply to ADWs. I wouldn't like it so much because I haven't set foot on track in almost 20 years and it's just up the street from me.
For all I know that was one of the keys to the odds being as stable as they were in those days. There were last minute odds drops but it was much less frequent. Without those OTB windows closing early who knows, I might not have even been a consistent winner every year. You still had to be a very good handicapper and be disciplined with your wagering but it was essentially a 10% ROI every year that I could count on.
People say the final odds are more accurate now, maybe, maybe not. You can back-test for profits quite easily over thousands of races and I'm not sure you could do that if the odds were so good. However back-testing is fixed odds wagering essentially. Good luck getting that to apply in the real world unless you have more current odds than the rank and file and can bet later than they do which is what I suspect is the case for some of the highest rollers offshore or wherever they may be.
It's been mentioned on here that we have far flung sites all over the globe which take their sweet time getting their money reporting into the US pools. That should change. The amount of time it takes them to report should be how many minutes their pools close early. If they want to start betting closer to zero MTP then they'll have to invest in a better network infrastructure.
Another thing that could be considered is taking away rebates for bets made after X minutes to post, say 5 minutes or whatever. That would force the 'whales' to wager early and stabilize the pools. You could even consider paying anyone (not just big players) a 10% payoff bonus for 'early bird' bets placed before 10 minutes to post.
Things like that might help matters but personally as a straight win bettor I would like to see exchange wagering brought into NY before I get serious about wagering again.
If someone younger came to me and asked for my advice about playing it seriously today I'd suggest staying away until things change. If you're ok with the drug issues in the US game then consider moving to NJ for the Betfair exchange. If you aren't ok with the drug issues look into some offshore options. HK / UK racing, anything like that is going to have more potential upside for your ROI than what we have now.
Recently I web scraped a few months worth of tote data from all of the thoroughbred tracks but haven't had the time to study it in-depth much. From the numbers I've looked at briefly WO appears to have the most stable win pool from zero to final and MNR the least.
If you put me under the gun and said I had to bet professionally again, being a flat bettor I'd probably be looking to focus on a track or tracks like Woodbine, Del Mar, Tampa, Belmont, where the win pools are changing the least from zero to final.
If those tracks still have too much volatility for you then you're pretty much looking at horizontals like the pick 4's, 5's etc, which granted are now more attractive with the new tax laws, however you're still going to be betting blind as far as the rewards go. I suppose with good common sense to only get involved whenever there's a false favorite... maybe.
Anyway, good luck if you play. I'll remain on-hold.
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