Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Sometimes I think you are being a pain just to be a pain. 
I talked about Liam's Map (ducked) in that post and addressed Life Is Good later (long term plans). It's also clear why City of Light went in the Mile.
This is how most smart connections think intuitively if not by using math.
If I'm 40% to win the Mile, and between 5%-10% to win the Sprint, I know I will occasionally win or get a major piece of the Sprint. But the right long term move is still the Mile despite the lower purse.
What you and others want to do is to force him into the 5%-10% or less strategic spot so we get a better race and then point to the occasional success as justification. I disagree partly because I think these days a lot of them will go home and wait instead.
I'm totally with you guys in calling out anyone I think is ducking and hurting the sport. |
And this is where I sit with Liam's Map in 2015 Breeder's Cup.
Where does he fit? Sprint is a no go as he wouldn't be near the fastest and Runhappy was a monster. May not even get paid finishing outside the top 5 if you are honest. Had to be either the Classic/Dirt Mile.
Classic? He and AP were front-runners. He'd have to contend with that beast, and go an extra furlong more than the one he was chased down by in Honor Code who was also in the race. He contends with AP for 6F to a Mile, he may not hit the board, much less return any $ for his efforts.
Kinda stinks, but the Dirt Mile was perfect for him, and he would be a massive favorite and likely winner (which he was).
