Quote:
Originally Posted by CBYRacer
How do you know the couch bettors wager more than the algo players? Also, "couch" bettors could also be algo players so the lines are blurred.
Also, if true, why does this necessarily imply that favorites will get bet down?
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With the favorite hitting on average 40% of the time in America now, an efficient payout would be roughly 7/5. It’s not (the average favorite is an overlay at that 2nd to last refresh of data), hence why it gets bet down at the final click before the pool can correct itself because there’s no opportunity for bettors to make the correction
Regarding who or what is betting more in the aggregate, I think NYRA (Tampa, Oaklawn, others that exclude CRW’s) have demonstrated that while it’s likely the CRW’s bet more on a per capita basis, they do not in the aggregate vs the entirety of the ADW money. This doesn’t even account for the fact that CRW’s would have no reason to participate in a pool without more money being wagered from other bettors to support the model of making the pool efficient
