|
As I said in the other thread the track would probably have to post the projected odds to put this issue to rest. It's not something for the masses to do on their own. With rolling doubles available it could be provided after the first race completes and then all subsequent races as a courtesy. I look at it as the next step beyond a morning line. Spin it as a horizontal odds projector or something if it needs to be spun. I'll attach a screenshot of the spreadsheet I put together to do it. Go to Amwager, check the results for the first race at Saratoga 8/22/2021, click the DD probables for Race 1, select them all, copy them into Excel. If you're unsure what to do next follow Beyer's good example in the Winning Horseplayer (section about Doc) to get an odds line out of the probables. Shown on the left of the screenshot where it says Win Odds, those were the final odds for Race 2. The decimal odds that were estimated and known at the conclusion of Race 1 are at the bottom of the sheet. Using these odds I am perfectly fine ignoring where the odds go throughout the betting, up down wherever, I don't even need to consider it. I assume the final odds will average out exactly as projected over a series of races, the slight variation that I see with NYRA for example should equal out. These estimates are plenty close enough for me as a win bettor to treat as fixed odds.
|
