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Originally Posted by Gakiss2
Thank You for our input on this subject. One of the things I sometimes do is to look for the horse with the second largest place pool and compare the win odds between the favorite and that horse. if the win odds of the second horse is 5 times that of the fave but the place purse is only half then I think I'm on to something. Of course the fave wins often but does that horse with the second largest place pool win often enough to make a profit? I mostly play for fun so I haven't really analyzed it but that is what I try sometimes. Do you have the ability to see real time purse data?? I've often thought it might be worthwhile to plot velocity of purse growth in the last few minutes since I think insiders tend to bet last minute. Your thoughts??
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Hello Gakiss2, Yes I've tried working with place and show pools as ratios to the win pools also. My problem was, I'd get a ratio calculated and the very next blink of the tote pool update, and my ratios all went out the window. Without some auto-input into my spreadsheet, It was too hard to react. I get pretty up to the minute data from DRF's live odds screens, but it only updates on the minute, or a little more often, but it's pretty accurate. It will update as they're loading into the gate, but it also shows updates, as they're out the gate and halfway down the back stretch. So it's real time to the second, there's always a lag, how much I don't know. As to insiders only betting the last minute, I agree and disagree. I've seen it happen both ways all the time. Since I can only react to early money and reasonably late money, I don't even try to reach to the late-late money. While I only had two winners today, they both had early money bet on them, in relation to their ML odds. I will try to show in the coming weeks, some fairly dramatic early money effect on the odds with a few winners.
