Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
Hey, Dave, having never boned up much on the use of "models," I have a question. In what way do such syndicates as the one inspiring this thread bake the public's handicapping (projected odds?) into their processes? As a comparative baseline to identify overlays as per their own odds generated by handicapping programs? Or to help winnow the field down to true contenders? Or is it a three-tiered formula, so to speak, in which the morning line gets somehow integrated with real-time odds before a handicapping program is added in? Is that what the term "smoothing out" refers to?
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Mark,
Anyone who makes a line and looks for overlays is using the public odds in making the comparison.
Most would have a requirement that there be a cushion between the value presented by the public odds and the expected return based on a personally derived line, such as looking for opportunities where the overlaid value is 100% greater than the oddsline expected return. (I am using a requirement along those line)
Making a composite odds line really does nothing more than adjust the required cushion percentage. You can manipulate the inequalities and turn a requirement about a composite line into a requirement on the oddsline at a higher cushion percent.
SK
