Quote:
Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged
So if we could focus our selection efforts on only the top three by pp's, money-flow, or whatever you choose, would that not get us closer to an even playing field? If you only focus your selection efforts to three choices, wouldn't our batting average improve? ROI, not sure?
So back to your question, If we could model an odds line that mirrors the final public odds, reliably, wouldn't selecting a winner or an ABC group for horizontals be improved? Not sure.
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Focus on 3 choices? Sure, but it doesn't matter if you focus on the field of 12 or 3 - you start with the field and handicap your way down to say 3. Schwartz always liked idea of half field plus 1 are the contenders - makes no diff - you still gotta make a choice of which one to bet or how many to bet.
You only make money when you differ from the public at a high enough strike rate and at at a price to overcome the take and breakage plus a positive return. So you gotta be at least 20% better. You need to find the races where Juan Q Publico is off by 20% or more on horses you like.
You pick 123 public picks 234. You figure 1 at 35%, public says 10%. That is what you want, obvious but every race isn't playable unless you have a computer based team.
