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So back to your question, If we could model an odds line that mirrors the final public odds, reliably, wouldn't selecting a winner or an ABC group for horizontals be improved? Not sure.
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Let me think about it a while longer.
Nope. Same answer as last time. ;-)
First, William Scott's stuff simply never worked. In fact, it kind of worked better in reverse! (i.e. toss the plays and pick from the other 2). Doesn't really matter because that was the Stone Age compared to today.
Today the top 3 win 74%.
There is something special about that number but it is not what you'd imagine.
Since you asked...
In 2018 I found it so hard to win that I reinvented everything. Just when I got it working, got even and winner for the year so I could actually withdraw money, winter was upon us.
In early 2019 everything changed again.
That time, I decided to do something I'd never done before. That's when I really started trying to do the reverse of what everyone else was doing. Pretty much literally.
I'd always done some form of pace handicapping; building models (automatically in HSH) but without ever selecting a paceline. Haven't done that in maybe 20 years.
So, what I did was turn the tables. I used the pace handicapping to set the odds and bet into those odds with "how the public bets."
BTW, the biggest difference between those 2 approaches is that one (the pace) is what the public does and the other (projected tote)
reflects what the whales do.
IOW, I wanted to EMULATE the whales betting into the HANDICAPPING.
(For those of you who chalk this up as the ravings of a lunatic, it
worked.)
(Emphasis on the past tense was intentional.)
As I always do, I went public with this to my users in our annual seminar. (Not free, but very reasonable, cost considering all the work I put into it.)
For those who believe that nobody would sell anything that works... well, get this... It is how I have made my living for the past 30 years. I build stuff that works and find a way to get paid for it.
Then, winter 2019 came. As has been the case for a number of years, many of the systems go dormant from just before Thanksgiving to about the last week in January.
My belief is that trainer patterns change because the big boys simply take the holiday season off and let their assistants do most of the work. They also rest their horses.
They go back to work seriously just after New Years but it takes 3 weeks or so for things to get back to normal.
Trivia: Field sizes are actually larger in the winter and speed ratings do a better job of pushing winners to the top ranks. I wouldn't have bet on either of these being true if I'd not run the tests myself.
Just as
The System was coming back (late Jan thru early March, 2020) Covid-19 shut everything down. What stayed running just made no sense!
The strategies were scenario-based. Those strategies were based upon the number of horses projected to be in the "1st tier" of the tote board projections. (Remember the tote projection was based upon the pace handicapping.)
Most of the strategies were literally reversed! Some scenarios called for betting overlay(s) and others called for underlay(s). A couple led to chaos races where we just bet the longest odds horses.
I've spent the last several months working all of this out. Started winning again in July, but it was still hit or miss.
I think I've got it dialed in now, but we'll see for sure in February. Meanwhile, no seminar for the guys this year. However, I am recording the current system that really seems to be working. It will be released to the guys who purchased last year's seminar as a free upgrade this week.
Got a little long-winded. It seems to be my nature. LOL
