Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I previously posted the results of my "automated" race flow metrics covering multiple years that showed flat bet profits on strong upgrades and severe underperformance on strong downgrades. I did that because the metrics are sufficiently complex and took so long to develop, I wasn't giving much away.
I've since developed some automated bias metrics that look very promising.
But it's a lot to ask people to give away insights and angles that can help produce profits and potentially destroy their own value by making them common knowledge. It's too damn hard to find anything worth anything in this game to just give it away if it's working.
These inefficiencies often don't last.
I once had a "place" inefficiency that was like a gravy train for a few years (and people laughed at me because I was betting to place) when NYRA had a 14% take on WPS (now higher), I was getting a 7% rebate (now lower), and they hadn't switched to "net pool pricing" for place and show playoffs yet (which hurt the edge a few percent). All those negatives plus more computer betting and that edge is long gone.
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Forget common knowledge, all it take is one betting team to latch onto the info and value is gone forever or as long as they are in business.
