Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
When I refer to money flow I’m observing the periodic changes that the tote analysis provides during a typical betting cycle. The changes are the numerical values for each entry that the analysis provides. It also creates what’s called a Par value that’s based on All of monies combined being analyzed. These values are then visually compared at 3 pre-determined betting intervals prior to post time. The time between these intervals vary based on the size of the typical betting handle being examined. The entries with values closest to the Par value are of primary interest and will eventually establish our belief in which are the real contenders in the race.
From what I understand there’s no need to distinguish where the money originates from. The analysis works by monitoring its flow by evaluating its movement in terms of when, where, and how much is entering each of the betting pools at the desired time intervals. Be it early or late money the primary consideration is always the number value relationships between each entry and Par.
When I once explained how I now played the horse racing game to a close friend of mine, he suggested that it’s very similar to what he and his associates do when playing the stock market. They like to find companies to invest in where they’ve discovered that the principals have also a substantial vested interest. Apparently they believe that it’s a much better investment knowing that the owners themselves have such high regard for their company’s profit potential.
A good Example:
Post #23
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/n...eply&p=2603660
TOTE ANALYSIS for Race # 8 – (Entries w/Computed Values closest to PAR are always of interest)
Code:
POST 3m 7m 12m ENT#
157 148 179 166 1
158 150 123 113 2
155 137 131 94 3
194 209 198 115 4
152 138 124 129 5
242 242 222 226 6
300 276 266 253 7
390 399 389 425 8
180 150 161 157 9
229 238 226 208 10
180 167 162 149 PAR
|
Nitro, In trying to understand your example above, Wouldn't the
and
be closest to Par at 3MTP? Is your Par value, some combination of an average of ML+15 MTP(or 20)+ Prev. Race Ave.(my example)? I've seen others use (ML + 15MTP)/2 as their Par value. Okay, if you can't say exact formula, just interested in the combinations. Or do you recalculate the Par at 3M, 7M and 12M snapshots?
Since I like to follow money flow also, my plays usually preferred when the money flow is shaded away from some par or ML value. From the races I've analyzed, when the money flow follows a ML or Par very closely across the board, that's often exactly how the horses finish. It tells me that in a particular race there isn't any false favorites among the top three or four. My thinking may be wrong, but it always seemed logical.
