Quote:
Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged
Using each horse's last five actual odds, we generate a predictive odds line to compare to actual odds. Then using a range, say +/- 25% we see who is falling inside or outside that range. Naturally there could be ways to make some adjustments based on finish last race or two, and class drops/rise, etc. I would make the average of the odds an exponential one, so that the last two carry more weight than previous three.
I know using a range, + or - 25%, is just a starting point. Using excel if you wanted, you could use a range within +/- 2 sigma limits or more. I know from following odds and betting for a long time, that often there will be only horse that will vary a lot from the ML. And often, there will be several.
The following chart(see link) shows three horses out of 8 that are outside those limits. Since the #1 is only slightly outside the 25% range, I'd only look at the #4, who is -61% below the predictive odds and #5 who is +45% above the predictive odds line. Is there some factor in their pp's that warrants #4 being bet much below where it usually is bet? Or does the #5 have the kind of value over its usual odds line? We've all seen a horse that's cold on the board, nothing's simple in this game.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...it?usp=sharing |
I just wanted to congratulate you on discovering what many of us who follow money flow have realized for quite some time. While the handicappers attempt to develop their own subjective odds line for each entry based on PP data, others like us realize that the actual odds line has already been presented, and it’s completely objective.
How it’s interpreted is another story, but it looks like you’re headed in the right direction.
GL
Nick
