Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
The way I see it, you looking for fundamental handicapping factors that are not fully appreciated on the odds board these days.
That could be anything from a new and improved way of calculating speed and pace figures, to a specific trainer angle that is not in the publicly available stats, to a very specific track bias situation or trip, to better pace projections, and so on etc..
It's going to be tough to find anything that's profitable on it's own. But there will be specific situations where you dislike the favorite for some reason and another horse has some hidden merit. If your information is well researched, that race is probably fertile ground for finding an actual overlay as opposed to some subjective opinion based on what could be a flawed handicapping and a flawed odds line.
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You and I approach this game differently. My subjective opinion is all that matter to me. My flawed odds line is just putting my subjective opinion as a estimated probability for each horses chance of winning. My ultimate goal is to learn how to adjust (blend) my odds line so that it can be profitable, much like Benter did years ago. I am making big strides in that department and am confident I am heading in the right direction. Will I get to where I want to get too, time will tell. If I don't, I am having a great time trying, so it is all good. Worse case scenario is I can hold my own in Harness racing. I can tell you this, due to my very busy life, I don't line nearly as many races as I would like to, but I can tell you that time and time again when I do line races, I feel I gain a perspective that makes it well worth the effort. To me every race, every double, every pick 3, every pick 4, every pick 5, every exacta, every tri, every super may be a potential opportunity. Also, the scores (or too often the scores you fail to execute properly on) often come up when you least expect it. Imo as a horse bettor you have a full arsenal of weapons to really beat this game up, but if you don't put forth the effort to hone your line making skills, and do the research to figure out how to use value as a tool, I feel you just will never reach your full potential in this game. Doesn't mean you won't win, I just believe there is always room for improvement, especially in this game.
