Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I can only speak for myself, but when I have all my bias and trips notes laid out in the Formulator PPs and am familiar with all the horses and classes, I can quickly look at a race and focus in on who might be better or worse than they look on paper and provide a potential bet.
When the race is loaded with horses I don't know, I may take a quick look at the charts that day, the horses in the races they are coming out of, and perhaps watch a replay, but my opinions are never strong. That not good for me "personally" because I'm cautious before pulling the trigger.
If you want to laugh, I'm never more confident about a bet than I am on mule races. There are around 40 mules on that fair circuit (even less in recent years). I know every single one them as well as possible because I have notes on every mule in every race for years, have seen every pan and head-on replay multiple times and have my own figures. I don't get many good prices, but I know them so well, sometimes I take 1-1 or 6/5 and know I'm stealing. I rarely take less than 5/2 or 3/1 on horses.
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I'm a formulator user, as well. Trip notes, bias notes, race-notes..and other things that might be of interest to viewers. And I go that whole nine yards with both Mountaineer AND Mahoning. But no way do I desire a program with no shippers.
True, a sharp player's confidence factor might soar when he is super-informed about the stock, but that's just one side of the equation. My point was sophisticated handicappers can widen their advantage even more (if just a bit) when less known commodities (invading horses) are added to the mix. A little uncertainty (in the form of semi-informed) speculation is not a bad thing when baked into the bottom line.
Admittedly, this opinion is partially based on the (increasing out-dated??) assumption that extreme familiarity with certain thoroughbreds does not follow them from track-to-track and well- inform their closing-odds.
But I do think that covid has made the American racing world just a bit smaller, if for no other reason than by giving handicappers more time to spread their focus, and that it's dicey, anyway, to assume that intimate knowledge of a field results in much more than a nominal edge these days.