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Old 04-17-2019, 10:58 AM   #15
Gakiss2
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Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
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Clarified

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
I especially like that last part. ;-)

Thank you.

The key to using trainer stats is to see them from the 10,000-foot level.

What we do is to create a subset of the "angles" that apply to each horse, and then average all the data for each category of the subset.



What I show above (lower-left) are the "systems." At the top are the trainers in this race, and the bottom-right are the applicable categories (or angles) for this horse.

Thus, if you look in the top section, at the highlighted trainer, you see that the categories below together average 25 starts and 3 wins.

Of course, there are a lot more columns in the table.

Here's the key point...

Each of the columns is available as a HANDICAPPING FACTOR!

Thus, looking at the "systems" - each column (such as win IV or place IV) could be populated directly into a weighted handicapping calculation!

This has a lot pf potential for pushing winners to the top, which is, of course, the logical goal.

Thank you for clarifying further what the data means. I will certainly keep this approach in mind as I go forward. I feel your example does well at exploring percentages when the angle 'conditions' present themselves (e.g. distance switch, layoff, etc.).
Teasing out angles, trainer intentions, trainer motivation is an interesting and complicated topic.
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Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 04-22-2019 at 02:02 PM.
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