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Originally Posted by dilanesp
I just bought the print edition of the Racing Form, and I'm shocked the number of writers who are throwing out the "statistic" that Exaggerator cannot win because no 2nd place Derby finisher has won the Derby since Prairie Bayou in 1993, and only three have done so since 1960.
This is just an absurd example of the tendency of handicappers to create "statistics" based on tiny Triple Crown sample sizes that are clearly due to variance.
First of all, there's nothing special about running second in the Derby. ...
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Exactly! I always wonder when people write or say that there is a statistical significance when there really isn't. And, I'm not referring to the sample size.
