Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I play mostly win and verticals, but based on your comment, I'm not sure you understand the issue.
Let's say I find a trainer angle that's been winning at 25% with an average payoff of $15, it has been going on for the last couple of years, and it fits a certain style of training. So I'm pretty sure it's not just noise. By the time I notice it, so probably have a few other people. So they will start getting bet lower. Maybe I'll have a good run for awhile depending on how frequent they are, but more people will notice it and handicappers will start mentioning the stat on TV and podcasts. Before you know it, they are still winning at 25% but the average payoff is $6.80. At that point it's almost useless information. And NO, there is no value in the exotics unless I have some other value oriented insight. People are not stupid enough to bet them to win and let the other payoffs be inflated.
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I understood what you said the first time which is no different than you reiterated to me because you think I don't understand. I do. But you don't seem to understand what I said. I'll try again.
I play P6's in with a group of players on carryovers. In constructing our ticket, singles are like gold because if they hit we are spread out elsewhere.
What I am saying is that if there is a horse as you say with a 25% winning average, REGARDLESS OF THE REDUCED PAYOUT FROM GENERATIONS AGO, that horse is a very strong contender as a single in a P6 or P4 etc.
This brings up another major flaw in the book. Meadows gives the ROI of angles. I DON'T CARE ABOUT THE ROI OF ANGLES BECAUSE THEY ARE INEVITABLY GOING TO BE LOSERS. What you want to know is the WIN PERCENTAGE. This is similar to blackjack and card counting. Are the percentages in your favor?
My database tells me the percentages of all the horses in a race to win that race based on their FORM. As mentioned it has already picked 3 P'6's this year alone just with its highest percentage in each race. In other words with a 20cents investment.
I don't know any database that can do that. That's why I say my database is better than Meadows or Massa combined. This is not my ego talking. It's blown my mind and am still in the process of developing it. And of course it has more "bad" days than "good". But when its good, it's really good.
So you get it? These "reduced value" horses can pay boxcars in exotics.
