Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
This is a good description. Plus the Brisnet writers said exactly what you said, in more words:
"Most importantly, always make sure to check all high speed points horses to see if they are need-the-lead types. Look at their past performances to see what happens when they don’t get the lead. If they never win without the lead, and they don’t figure to get the lead in today’s race, they can probably be thrown out with confidence."
I think Brisnet does a good job overall, but keep in mind some of these 3 yo horses have few runs in them to get a solid handle on style. This also muddies the Quirin Speed Points should a horse simply have some bad racing luck in a couple events. A look at the trainer, jockey, and breeding might provide additional insight on how it will run in the Derby or elsewhere.
A good example of nailing it was the E7 assigned to Medina Spirit in 2021 in spite of the horse not having the lead in any call in previous two races. There was no doubt he was still an E and the 7 Quirin Speed Points suggested he had a ton of it. The only equivalent horse this year is Verifying.
A possible example where it's wrong. Forte is listed as a P3. The 3 suggests the horse doesn't have much early speed. He gets "penalized" for racing in larger fields (and with strong pace figures; 46 and 47 half mile calls) than most of the others, otherwise one could argue he looks more like an EP5.
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Agree. I think you look at a horse like Practical Move with a P7. Horse has broke terribly in his last 3 races (a serious problem that has to be considered in 'capping his chances). He isn't running 4th or 5th at 1st call on purpose. Guarantee the connections want him to break much more sharply and be on or near the lead into the 1st turn.
Mage is another that I fully believe his preferred running style is to be on or near the lead. Being lightly raced, he has but 3 starts and broke poorly in 2 of them.
I think intent and connections also have a huge say. You look at horses like Confidence Game, Hit Show, and Verifying. Those are smart trainers and connections that have to know they aren't beating Tapit or Forte if they are side by side at the top of the stretch.
