Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
IMO, Factor This didn't take as much money as you expected because there were 2 other speeds in the race (Somelikeithotbrown and Spectacular Gem) that could press him or force him to run fast early. He also wound up outrunning True Valor who was ridden aggressively.
Sacred Life was competitive at the Grade 2 level, finished 4th in a good Grade 1, was coming off a powerful closing effort in a slow paced race, and imo most importantly in terms of the betting was trained by Chad Brown.
As it was, the pace was pretty fast, all those chasers tired badly, and the pace is probably why Factor This got beat. The public just settled on the wrong closer to pick him up.
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you might be right
but your analysis of the race is very sophisticated
I tend to doubt that the majority of these bettors, many of them once in a blue moon players on this particular day, would have that much deep thinking behind their analysis
even if they were not once in a blue moon players
I don't believe you are typical in terms of how you come to a decision
although I do acknowledge that many of the bigger bettors on ordinary days that move the tote are very sophisticated
if a field of 10 there is almost always more than one speed horse
yes, Chad Brown being the trainer would influence some - that's simple enough
I believe that a great many betting horses and who affect the odds are not playing the game anywhere near to your level
also, I don't believe my main point that the class is horse is so often bet down is incorrect, and again, I'm not saying that the class horse doesn't often deserve to be bet down - just saying it happens
very, very often
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