Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
CJ is correct. Its about finding which horse or horses offer value in relationship to their chance of winning. For this you are going to need an oddsline that is reasonably accurate. First you need to look at that oddsline and the pps and determine which horse/s is underbet in relationship to its chance of winning (your odds). So if I have a horse at 5-1 on my oddsline and I think he has a chance to win, then I am looking to get at least a 50% overlay in the case of a 5-1 Id want 8-1 (always round up). If you have a decent oddsline and you have a good sense of contenders then you should be able to come out ahead in the long run because you are betting overlays (value). The key is to handicap value not horses, and the public is smart, there is not value in more than about 10% of races. Doing this, you are going to have a low win %, mine is generally 7-9%, but I still come out profitable in the long run.
Best,
Matt
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I have to push back against this as it's the exact opposite of what one should do today.
Go to any casino, OTB and you'll see the same thing, people reading the form trying to find a winner. If you follow the same process as 95% of the bettors and end up with a horse that is 'value' on your oddsline. Who is wrong? My opinion is that there is information that isn't exactly clear on the PP's and that 'valuebet' is actually a 'sucker bet'.
I always use the analogy if I offered to sell you a Ferrari for 10 bucks your first response shouldn't be 'that's an awesome deal' but rather 'what's wrong with it'.
