Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
It isn't about which horse is going to win, it is about which horses are good bets. Figures those out and you'll get enough winners to make a profit.
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CJ is correct. Its about finding which horse or horses offer value in relationship to their chance of winning. For this you are going to need an oddsline that is reasonably accurate. First you need to look at that oddsline and the pps and determine which horse/s is underbet in relationship to its chance of winning (your odds). So if I have a horse at 5-1 on my oddsline
and I think he has a chance to win, then I am looking to get at least a 50% overlay in the case of a 5-1 Id want 8-1 (always round up). If you have a decent oddsline and you have a good sense of contenders then you should be able to come out ahead in the long run because you are betting overlays (value). The key is to handicap value not horses, and the public is smart, there is not value in more than about 10% of races. Doing this, you are going to have a low win %, mine is generally 7-9%, but I still come out profitable in the long run.
Best,
Matt
