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Conceptually, this sounds much like the principles behind the Match-Up, a variation within the Sartin Methodology. In the words of Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw, the race doesn't start at the 2nd call, the race starts when the gate pops.
The Match-Up is based on projecting an early pace and determining whether that pace and the make up of the field will result in a race that will run early, with an "E" running style horse winning, or OTE (other than early) with a presser or sustained style winning.
If one of the "E"s in #1 above can dominate the others, it will likely win. If not, the "E"s will fight each other for the lead and burn out, leaving the others in #2 to take over in the stretch.
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It is NOTHING like the match up.
