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My methodology assigns a fair-odds figure to each horse in a race reflecting its true chance of winning, rather than narrowing a race field down by applying a series of elimination criteria. (That way, I make sure that I don't overlook any horse.) I then look for the horse with actual odds that compare most favorably with the fair odds that I have assigned to it (that is, the greatest overlay). However, I try to avoid horses (even if overlaid) that have received a rating in any of the handicapping categories in my methodology (reflecting running style, speed, condition, class, jockey, and post position) that is so low that it represents an independent variable that by itself adversely affects the horse's probability of winning.
Last edited by Overlay; 11-14-2019 at 12:07 AM.
Reason: Greater accuracy
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