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I think you are underestimating Girvin simply because until this weekend was a virtual unknown. However, his speed figures for the Risen Star are competitive with most of the name horse's who have won preps thus far this year.
Furthermore, on strict form, he compares well. McCraken defeated Guest Suite by 5 lengths in the Street Sense last year, and Girvin beat Guest Suite by about 5 lengths on Saturday. McCraken defeated Remsen runner-up No Dozing by 10 lengths in the Sam Davis. Girvin beat the Remsen winner Mo Town by 10 lengths in the Risen Star.
As for the other regions, it should be no surprise that Florida is top heavy early in the year. That is the case every year. Colts of classic potential rarely winter in NY and KY, only competing in the preps there when spring arrives. Historically, most horses that compete in the Blue Grass and Wood Memorial make their early starts in Florida.
Meanwhile, I think you overestimate CA horses. All the races there thus far have had the look of first condition allowance races at best and maiden special weights at worst. Gormley has a lot to do to make up the double digit length loss in the BC Juvenile on his home track. Mastery has yet to start. Meanwhile, the barometer for the region is Irap. He is a maiden, and yet he has placed behind Mastery in a Grade 1 and Royal Mo in a Grade 3. Its curious then that in his last two maiden special weight appearances (prior to each of those stakes appearances) he has failed to hit-the-board. To me that suggests that the maiden special weight races in CA are not much different from the stakes events. That's not a positive observation. And then lo and behold, he ships to Sunland Park and fails there, too.
One CA horse who may creep up to the top of the heap (if he isn't burnt out along the way) is So Conflated. He's supposed to go in the Gotham in NY, so we will get another line on how the regions compare with one another this weekend.
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