Quote:
Originally Posted by cato
Hey, Matt! I did not mean to make a negative post - just the voice of caution based only on my experience. In fact your posts and work-up are really interesting and I am going to take a deep dive into this portfolio.
I'm sure you've looked at this a lot of different ways but I took a look at the races that are "proceed with great [extreme] caution" and found them to be profitable with 35 bets and 5 winners. I only looked at June 1- 16 because I'm doing it manually so it's a small small small sample - but all of this is very promising.
Thanks for sharing and discussing your work.
Best, Frank
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Hi Frank,
I will give you a hint, eliminate any stakes race or MSW race, through 6 months this year that decreased total bets from 232 to 204 and did not eliminate a single winner. This actually makes sense because stakes quality horses run well off layoffs all the time and layoffs are a big part of antivalue. MSW are stakes quality horses in a lot of cases.
I have never tried this on orange races, have always eliminated them, but I may have to look into that if what you found holds true.
I also have to do this manually so it is very time consuming. I didnt think your post was negative, I just wanted to make sure everyone understood that I didnt just post this out of the blue, I have looked at it for several years, so what I say has definitely held true in the past, but its horseracing so as we all know to well, the past doesnt always predict the future. Best of luck.
