Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Adjustments like that are pretty complicated.
Part of the improvement you see with 2yos that turn 3 and 3yos as the season moves forward is related to physical maturity (the horse is getting bigger and stronger) and part of it is development that comes from getting fitter, more seasoned, and better with more racing.
Occasionally you will see a relatively lightly raced 4yo or 5yo that finally gets over whatever delayed their career. They will often develop and improve their figures as the season moves forward just like younger horses (though maybe not as quickly or extreme). That's telling you that part of it is not just "age". It's experience.
That makes it really tough to put that kind of thing in a formula of some kind. It's hard to isolate how much each factor contributes on average.
Then of course it gets even trickier with some pedigrees and/or trainers that develop horses differently than the average.
Great subject.
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I make my own Hambleton pace figures. I make many adjustments to them.
Track to track, distance to distance--from Cynthia par book.
I mentioned my 2 year to 3 year old adjustments I make after a long lay off, and that's because as you stated horses gain muscle from 2-3. But only for lightly raced horses,1-2 races.
I made an adjustment chart. If the horse's race was December one tick adjustment faster, to races in May 8 tick faster.
I use these ratings as guidelines or advisory.
I read here that second time starters vastly improve generally in their second race. And that it's an average of a 5 tick gain. Some improve much more than that or not at all, so again, any rating is advisory.
I present my figures in 3 forms.
Last race I write the numbers, 85 82 167
Other than last race I put numbers in parentheses.
If a troubled race I put numbers in brackets.
If I have too many questions after handicapping, I'll pass the race.
