Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter
So what, if the horse was 2-1 while they were loading the gate even if you wanted to bet him at 3-1 or higher, you had no way of knowing he would be 4-1. The only way to capitalize on such is to be so off on your analysis that you would take 2-1 on such a horse(which assumes he has over a 33% chance of winning). Your point is that whales make mistakes, NSS. But if we can't take advantage of their mistakes it does us the bettor no good, unless we are just way off in our analysis.
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In this case, the horse was 8-1 in the morning line, but to me that was ridiculously high. After the first click the horse was 3/5 (less than $500 on him to win at that point). The odds slowly climbed to 2-1 by the time they were going in the gate.
Figuring that whales likely were not focusing too much on a horse that was 8-1 in the ML but only 2-1 as the last horse is going in the gate, you could reasonably expect the odds might still creep up as the late money comes in.
Getting 4-1 was a bit better than I expected. Thanks, whales!
