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[CincyHorseplayer]

The first thing I look at with any race is conditions and class ability of all the entrants with wins and up close finishes and as a thing in itself without any reference to speed or pace figures(at least initially).The location,surface,level,the movement around,it IS how you get to know the personality of the horse and the trainer.

What to do with it.I love outrun lines.It makes a horse shipping in from Hoosier Park to Beulah win at 4-1 or 10-1 because outrun speed competitive in today's race,instead of being in the vacuum of a faster race the horse finds itself in the ideal spot and gets aggressive.I love people who boast of never looking at past performances.It makes a horse that nearly won on OC62/N2X that is competing in an OC32/N1X win at 6-1.It makes layoff horse that nearly won a G3 race as a 2 year old 6 months ago win a N1X at 4-1 because it's speed figure is 6-8 points below the top in the field.Class is always relative to the field,but when comparing competitive speed the horse that earns it vs better is nearly always better than those who earn it vs lesser.I think only a few of us believe in it because it is such a race specific concept.It is only vaguely testable in a database.The latter being the criteria for belief,therefore it is not believed,therefore it is an overlay.

I'm not sure if I completely grasp where you were going with your post but this is the best answer I can give right now.Things like this arouse my interest because it fits neatly into my theory of all races as single factor events.1 factor that dominates a specific race and sits atop the hierarchy and renders secondary all other factors.And it can be so dominant that it can render 4-5 positive factors meaningless and underplayed.A single factor can shatter any theory of what is positive in any handicapping theory,in any database,single race dependant.Class is definitely one of those factors.And the more it is not believed the bigger it will indeed be overlayed.I like to look at it in isolation like I think you are saying you do.