Quote:
Originally Posted by iamt
It seems counter-intuitive to talk the 'wisdom of the crowd' when some runners were so badly wrong, but by their nature larger pools should be more efficient so the actual contenders could still have been about right.
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All else being equal larger pools would tend to be more efficient, but races like the Derby, Preakness, Belmont and BC tend to bring in a lot of unsophisticated money relative to the typical day. That’s almost certainly why the odds were out of whack. Unsophisticated money tends to overbet long-shots.
