Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
If one horse won an average Grade 3 event with an honest trip and the other won a 10K claimer with a really tough trip (and was probably 5 lengths the best) would you be able to figure out which horse was better without any pace or speed figures?
I'll assume you'd know the Grade 3 horse was better.
You'd know the pecking order of horses well enough to know that the gap between those classes is much larger than 5 lengths worth of tough trip.
If you build a table that represents all the classes at your track and you know statistically how a win, 2nd, 3rd... at one class relates to win, 2nd, 3rd... at another class you have the basis for comparing horses without pace and speed figures.
Then you can take that to a higher level by identifying weak/strong races at a specific class designation by determining how deep and strong the race was compared to average.
Then you can start taking it to a higher level by comparing those horses based on trips they had within those races.
This is a lot tougher than looking at a number on a piece of paper that someone else calculated. However, it has the benefit of being non public information that's not hampered by things like changing track speeds, wind, run up, rail settings, sprint/route differences, figure maker error etc...
All the things that can impact time and lead to figure errors become irrelevant when you are comparing horses based on the race conditions and their trips relative to each other. (of course you introduce other problems, but that's another story)
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I would...but that's not the sort of problem that the horseplayer is ever asked to grapple with. Usually...we are asked to handicap fields where the horses are racing in similar "class" circles...with only their level of "form" being the main separating point between them. And, it occurs to me that the speed/pace figures come in handy when determining the level of a horse's current "form". I was intrigued when Dahoss said that he doesn't use figures of any kind, and I asked him the question that I did because I know that he is a competent handicapper...who has demonstrated his handicapping ability on this board on several occasions in the past. When a handicapper like Dahoss says that he uses no figures in his handicapping, I want to know more...and I ask further questions.
Now...I've also read several intriguing postings from YOU, such as the one that you've posted here...where you ALSO present the opinion that the races could be handicapped effectively without using speed and pace figures. You've expressed this opinion here before, and I've always found it intriguing, but...since you don't ever present any tangible proof of your class-method's "real-time" application...I don't know what to make of this opinion of yours. Every time that I've asked you to handicap a live race using your "who-beat-whom" method...you've always politely refused.
I like "theory"...but I can't embrace it unless I actually see it being put into PRACTICE.
