Quote:
Originally Posted by rsetup
Actually, the race went 2-17-3-13-8-15-14-12 (4f's to wire) for the top 8.Closers, clearly, weren't compromised.
My issue with this race is that, other than Lookin at Lee, NOTHING gained the last call against the winner in a dawdling 26.32. In fact, LAL was the only horse to gain the 1st 8th of that last split. And this is after they ran 26.15 for the previous quarter.
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I think we actually agree.
I am very interested in where various horses came from in the field, but I am also interested in how many front runners were in the race, where horses finished relative to my estimation of their ability going in, and the fractions of the race.
The race was loaded with on the pace horses (some that figured to be compromised) and the fractions were unquestionably fast relative to the final time on that slow track. Typically, in an somewhat evenly matched field like this, the closers WOULD HAVE made up some ground in that slow last quarter and been more threatening. That they didn't is exactly the point I was trying to make in my post.
I guess there are lot of possible reason for that. In a big field like that everyone gets full of mud, several lost a lot of ground, some may not have liked the track, etc.. That's all speculation. My point is that given the fractions, there were several horses that in my estimation should have at least been able to pick up Battle of Midway who was right on the pace initially and then just off it, but they did not despite the fact that he was tiring badly.
The only closer that really even threatened was, as you said, Lookin at Lee who saved a ton of ground. IMO, he was not one of the highest quality closers in the race. That's says something.
