Sticking to past performances but to have realistic expectations of hitting that race, one kind of has to play with more than one horse. There are many, many times that racing luck determines the winner of that race. It happens quite often, the best horse does not always win a race like that. It helps to be good, it helps even more to get an opening at the right time and to not be taken out by others in the field. The winner is often a flash of opportunity, right time, right place, by the end of last year Nyquist was an after thought and that's not the only year that has happened. If one puts all their eggs in one basket, its a good recipe for getting burnt in the derby. Realizing that the hype and expectations often does not coincide with the result is half the battle.
Keep it real.