I'll bite on the Ohio Derby.
I see more value and and nearly as much merit in the
and
as the
and
. The latter two are legit but hard to imagine playable prices beyond a little coverage in a seven-horse field.
I liked the
in the Kentucky Derby and will stick with him here. He started poorly and blew the lead he needed last time. He had no excuse in the Florida Derby. But if you toss that race and forgive the KD, he looks all right.
He didn't beat much in the previous two at Tampa, but I bet that's getting overemphasized. The class figs on those fields are not wildly off this one. He broke sharply both times, and he won against a bias favoring closers in the first of the Tampa pair.
With the
out, that leaves only
to contest for the lead, who I don't see burning out the
in a duel, not to mention prevailing outright. Although he may get dismissed and hold on for a piece, which is worth a bet.
That leaves a close stalking trip pretty open for the
, and then
. A G1 win in the Florida Derby trumps the 5th showing in the G2 Wood on paper. But you could argue the Wood was the classier race, and the
actually ran a better fig, besting any in the
's one-race-longer career. The
is the brighter prospect in Maker's uncoupled entries, and looks like a live surprise here.
Then come the "midpack" runners
and
, who are dangerous as any with only four to pass on the pace. I can't get excited about the
, although a Lukas has a sneaky good record with 3yo stakes entrants off this kind of turnaround time. Hard not to use him, but he's my fifth choice.
Lots to like about the
—but that's the problem. Did well to finish five lengths back for 7th in the Derby at 80-1. The late bias propelled his win in the Lexington, otherwise about par with this event. He's certainly not a cinch to win and not impossible out of the exacta. Does he even want to go this far?
The
was my only toss in the field of eight. More leery of that in the shorter field, but I'll try to do without him given all the other contention.
Hard to carve up clever bets with the modest field size, but the
and
are bets at fourth and fifth choices. Maybe double-key them in exotics. Try to get at least one of the two faves out of the exacta.
Tough call on the super. Maybe a few aggressive strikes with horses I like and a couple ALL slots to try to catch a surprise. Not sure I can do that without spreading too much.
