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Thread: Wood Memorial
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Old 04-07-2013, 12:59 PM   #66
RXB
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,787
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tread
While the pace was soft, people should not get carried away about the actual raw times. The wind was stiffly in the face of the horses leaving the gate and coming to the wire, 20mph sustained gusting to 30. This undoubtedly slowed down the the initial fractions and last 8th and explains why each 1/4 split in this race was faster than the last (until the last 8th), unlike just about every other "derby" race so far.

I see people all over Twitter trying to downplay the performance compared to the SA derby simply based on raw time. That SA surface was lightning quick all day with no wind issues. Anyone who thinks Goldencents would have also run 1.48 at Aqu yesterday is ridiculously delusional.

Verrazano has already shown he can handle pace pressure, one of his races at GP he was fully pressured thru splits of 45 and 109, so there is zero question about his ability to handle a hot pace.
How does a backstretch tailwind explain an even faster fourth quarter-mile? 37% of the fourth quarter-mile of a 9f race at Aqueduct takes place after the horses have straightened into the home stretch and the other 63% takes place during the middle and latter thirds of the far turn, so presumably any backstretch tailwind would be slowing them down when they ran the fourth quarter-mile, not speeding them up. Yet they ran that quarter faster than any preceding quarter, while transitioning to a headwind from a tailwind, in the final third of a dirt race? Face it, they sped up at that point because they had absolutely lollygagged early.

Some of us know how to make figures just fine and we knew yesterday that the SA Derby was a much faster race than the Wood-- on adjusted times, not just raw times.

The highest class and farthest distance that Verrazano has proven that he can handle legit fractions is the G2 8.5f Tampa Bay Derby. That's a far cry from the most important G1 race for spring 3YO's at 10f-- especially for a leader/presser type who is coming from a slow race where he was able to jog comfortably in 2nd position behind a hopeless longshot, into a race that is typically contested at a too-fast early clip.
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