It seems to me that a good indication of how a horse will run at a longer distance is how he runs in the last part of his races. Does he run as fast or faster. Is there a big drop off in his performance. I looked at the four mile and one eighth preps run thus far and compared the performances of the four winners.
I used their individual times for the first half mile, the second half mile, the final eighth. and the final five eighths. I used the standard one fifth seconds. (.20 seconds) per length. I calculate a head as one tenth of a length.
For the first half mile I used the time of the leader and adjusted for the lengths the individual horse was behind, if any.
For the second half mile I subtracted the leader's time at the mile from his time at the half. The I adjusted for the lengths gained by the individual horse.
Here is what I came up with:
FIRST HALF:
Verrazano ran his first half mile in 50.02 seconds. He was two lengths behind.
Goldencents ran his 1st half in 46.58 seconds. He was 1/2 length behind.
Orb ran his first half in 49.36 seconds. He was four lengths behind.
Revolutionary ran his first half in 48.8 seconds. He was 12.3 lengths behind.
SECOND HALF:
Verrazano ran his second half in 47.70 seconds, gaining two lengths.
Goldencents ran his second half in 49.14 seconds, gaining one half length.
Orb ran his second half in 48.62 seconds gaining 2.9 lengths
Revolutionary ran his second half in 48.96 seconds, gaining 12.3 lengths.
After one mile Verrazano, Goldencents and Revolutionary were all on the lead.
Orb was 1.1 lengths behind
FINAL EIGHTH:
Verrazano 12.53
Goldencents 13.04
Orb 12.86. He gained 1.1 lengths in that final eighth,
Revolutionary 12.52
FINAL FIVE EIGHTHS:
Verrazano 60.23
Goldencents 62.18
Orb 61.48
Revolutionary 61.48
From the numbers above it is undeniable that Verrazano is the superior horse at the end of those races. It is also obvious that he has the breeding to go a mile and a quarter or further. But please, don't let that stop you all from convincing each other that he is a terrible bet. Maybe that will get me better odds.
The one thing which I did not factor in was the relative speed of the various tracks. Can we agree that from fastest to slowest the tracks would be ranked, Santa Anita, Gulfstream, Aqueduct, and Fair Grounds.
