Quote:
Originally Posted by garywpt
And to add to the above Rock Your World has a terrible Brisnet LP number of 91 and past 1st and 2nd place finishers had a Brisnet LP number of 93 or above 80%!!
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That's a big negative for me, BUT, he's clearly one of the better early speed horses in this thing and those are on a seven year winning streak. The hype around the horse reminds me a bit of Roadster a couple years back and we saw how that turned out. The BSF figures are not much different either. I'm going to defensively include but will have more betting units on a couple others.
Not pure chalks, but 100+ point horses I'm tossing from the win pool include Hot Rod Charlie and Super Stock. I'm also inclined to toss from the exacta and tri. The Louisiana Derby looks decent on TimeformUS and Beyer but so-so on Brisnet and Equibase. The expected Derby early speed is faster than him and he doesn't have that extra gear to pass horses late. In fact, he's passed a net -1 horses between stretch call and finish (+2 and -3). Nothing wrong with Pratt but JR has a hot hand right now. Super Stock benefited from pace collapse and crawled home to the win.
