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I figure Improbable wins here. I'd be more concerned about his Derby prospects if he gets beat versus a decent place for Game Winner whom I believe is the better horse with a quintessential Derby winning pedigree. 8.5F should fit perfectly in Improbable's wheelhouse based on his brilliant speed. Game Winner is stalking grinder type who I expect will do more damage at 9F and beyond. The second place horse in the San Felipe has won more Derby renewals than the winner (6 to 5).
If there is a Giacomo type in the Derby gate this year it might be Gunmetal Gray. He seems like the type that will finish third in the Santa Anita Derby with good closing fractions. Mike Smith, anyone? The speed in this race is not cheap and a meltdown is not expected for him to capitalize.
Cold Trifecta if we have the minimum number of starters:
Improbable-Game Winner-Gunmetal Gray
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