Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I'd have to spend a some time looking through his horses to make a list, but I already discussed that imo Arrogate's jump up was not typical. I'd put Gamine's jump up into that category also.
Lightly raced horses get better al the time. Occasionally one will run a single huge race with a favorable trip or bias. But horses usually don't jump up from what I would consider high level prospect to "all time great" level in a few weeks. They also don't usually stagger at 9F twice and then repulse bids and rebreak at 10F without breaking a sweat just a few weeks later.
It's not unusual for me to handicap a race and say to myself "if this was anyone other than Baffert, I'd have confidence leaving him out" but from experience I know those horses will often outrun their PPs.
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Would you put say Bellamy Roads performance in the Wood in that category?
Most of these horses are odds on or at the very least well backed. (Authentic was third choice, Justify was odds on in just about every race he ran, and they were all very fast efforts (including his maiden against no one when there is no reason to use some super chemical).
Baffert is cheating, most are, he is just better at it than most with better stock. I dont think there is any comparison though with the chemicals that Service used and those that baffert uses. His horses often hold form for many races and there are very few 1 off efforts or horses running 50 beyers and now run 100's.
