Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
Setting beside Authentic, who are these horses who defied your handicapping judgement?
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I'd have to spend a some time looking through his horses to make a list, but I already discussed that imo Arrogate's jump up was not typical. I'd put Gamine's jump up into that category also.
Lightly raced horses get better al the time. Occasionally one will run a single huge race with a favorable trip or bias. But horses usually don't jump up from what I would consider high level prospect to "all time great" level in a few weeks. They also don't usually stagger at 9F twice and then repulse bids and rebreak at 10F without breaking a sweat just a few weeks later.
It's not unusual for me to handicap a race and say to myself "if this was anyone other than Baffert, I'd have confidence leaving him out" but from experience I know those horses will often outrun their PPs.
