Quote:
Originally Posted by Bogo
Hey guys. I wanted to introduce myself as a new pace member. I love harness racing and have been playing for about 6 months. I prefer the longer stretch and I am currently playing Meadowlands, Woodbine, and Hawthorne. I am pretty conservative by nature and I usually play 3-4 races per card. I have not been getting killed but tend to lose a little over the course of a month. This forum has a lot of experienced handicappers and I wanted to compliment all of you on the solid picks that you post here. As much as I appreciate the picks I was hoping some people would go into more detail on how they arrived at the selection. If some feel uncomfortable or feel they are revealing an edge, I understand. For others, maybe an explanation of a best bet or some other pick that you won. It can be a race that was in the past or one coming up. It seems some guys are using some type of computer calculations and others some spots or angles. Since I asked this I will post a brief outline of what I am currently using to help me handicap. Feel free to make suggestions on my process.
First I look at a horse's last two starts within 21 days. If the second race falls outside 21 days I just use the last start. I take the TM speed rating and make the following adjustments. Add 1 for every park out. 2 if three wide and 2 if the horse had the lead at one of the calls. I subtract 3 for a horse moving into a negative post. This post varies from track to track. I add or subtract for driver changes. This process is a little more detailed and I can explain further if someone asks. After all the ratings are done I look for a horse that has the highest rating and is a price or if I am playing under 5/1 I prefer a horse whose rating is best by at least 3 points. If a horse is the program and board favorite I pass the race.
I mostly play win but am trying to learn the best way to put together tickets for exactas. At this point trifectas and supers are just too much. Thanks for reading and hopefully some members will respond to this.
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My advice, go through some old programs if you have some and take your finalized tm numbers and average them with the tm class rating. So if you have a horse with a 93 your speed rating but it was a 85 class rating, you will have a final number of 89. While a horse with a 93 your speed rating and a 93 class rating will be a 93. I think you will find the numbers to be a lot more accurate. After you have done so, let me know what you determine, I am curious myself about the conclusion you reach. If you don't have any old programs than obviously you will have to start fresh.
Stick with win betting. If you like, you can use exactas as a protection bet. Simply playing the top 3 favorites on top of your horse will give you the winning exacta about 70% of the time your horse runs 2nd with no handicapping whatsoever. If you want to play your horse on top of the same 3 for about half as much you could. So a play may look something like this. $30 to win #6, $6 exacta 1-2-7 over 6 $3 exacta 6 over 1-2-7. By playing the top 3 favorites you are usually catching the live horses that unfortunately will beat you way too often. Down the road when you feel that your are really good at the game, you can try other approaches. I realize you may not always know who the top 3 favorites will be.
You are wise to stay away from tris. High takeouts and of course you are forever being beat by inferior horses who get much better trips. Also whenever one or more of your horses breaks you are in deep ****. in the trifecta. If you want to use trifecta as a protection bet(with 20 cent minimus at some tracks it is not expensive. You can do something like this 1-2-7 with all with 6 and then 1-2-7/1-2-7 plus other horses that look strong to you /6. Once again should your horse come 3rd at least you will hit the tri about 70% of the time.
By the way not sure if you are there yet, but at some point you have to explore the 20 cent(low takeout) pick 5 at Woodbine/Mohawk. The value is so good so often and with a 20 cent denomination you can play for affordable amounts. If you aren't comfortable with that idea, ignore the suggestion. Much better you stay within your comfort zone.
