Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
All else being equal larger pools would tend to be more efficient, but races like the Derby, Preakness, Belmont and BC tend to bring in a lot of unsophisticated money relative to the typical day. That’s almost certainly why the odds were out of whack. Unsophisticated money tends to overbet long-shots.
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I can't argue with your logic, as this explanation seems to explain the relative overlays and underlays between the pools, per the posts by Suff.
At the same time, if the whales were so all mighty sharp and their pockets as deep as their reputation makes them, what doesn't make sense is why they didn't jump all over Early Voting.
"Hindsight is 50-50" as Pat Dye once said, but I would think the "sophisticated" money on racing's Big Days would be moving these pools, as these pools should be presenting some of the best opportunities of the year.
Since the Win pool didn't reflect the big moves, that tells me that maybe the Whales are leaving the game.....
