Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
This is the issue I've been bringing up for decades.
At various times I've had access to Beyer, Timeform, Ragozin, Thorograph, and Logic Dictate figures. For many major stakes I've had 4 or 5 sets at the same time. Even if you normalize them for things like ground loss, weight, pace and other methodology differences, they often disagree, sometimes significantly. That means any odds line you may be contemplating may often not reflect reality. It will reflect the figures you just happen to be using - which could be wrong.
So how do you know if that 5-1 shot you are betting is an overlay or if you are making a bet off an inflated figure or if one of the other horses has a deflated figure?
You can't.
I tried solving that problem by looking at all the major figure differences, studying the race cards and times carefully, and trying to determine who had it right in that case. That's a lot of work and often leads to greater confusion instead better betting value. That's not a very good solution.
What I've learned to accept is that even though very smart people are making these figures, the nature of figure making is that they are at best subjective approximations of how fast a horse ran and at worst contain some significant errors. So it is probably best to not form strong opinions on the merits of a horse based on numbers a few points one way or the other. I think it's best to eliminate the obviously slower horses and use other methods for separating those that are "ballpark" fast enough.
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Are they that far apart?
Of the 2 I have used- Beyer and Timeform,I seldom see them that far apart,especially when you know that TF rewards early speed (as it should be)Is there a recent race of any level that you could point out that there seems to be a very large difference of opinion?
