Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
I wonder why none of the guys on here who watch (LIKE A HAWK) and report every five minutes on late odds drops in the win pool, never noticed the CAW "at the bell" money had been eliminated from the biggest meet in the country?
Even when Andy dropped a hint a few weeks ago, they still didn't notice until it was widely reported.
Fascinating.  |
Most people who want to bet flat like me have either passed away, moved on entirely by now to some other sports betting or joined the vast majority in switching over to gimmicks.
I don't quite understand the initial secrecy with dropping a hint about this tbh. I'm sure there's a reason. Calling people out however for not noticing seems like secretly netting the Durban beaches and wondering why people still aren't swimming yet. I'm sure a few folks will slowly start making their way back into the water now that they know it's safe to do so.
As for the CAW part of this, from my perspective a change like this eliminates holes in the system (if there were any or possibly even potential ones) i.e. if there were in fact some late stragglers who have been getting away with betting after everyone else, after the bell etc, in theory that should no longer be possible. I'm a computer guy so I know what's actually possible but let's go ahead and assume this is fixed, I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt. With that being said I welcome all money in the pools, including CAW money.
Admittedly I'm very late to the party for leveraging double probables to mitigate the issues with odds volatility. I had willpays in my head for too long, I knew the score with those, so I didn't give this a fair shake until Andy browbeat us enough times. THIS really should be what NYRA and all tracks provide IMO. Just have a projected odds line for the second leg shown on the monitors based upon the closing DD probables from the first leg. Again I'm not talking about DD willpays, willpays are calculated off the 1st leg winners share of the pool, period, that ranges anywhere from a good chunk of the pool to next to nothing, willpays aren't within close enough tolerances IMO. Once this is provided I don't think anyone has excuses for not betting flat with respect to odds volatility. And yes we can copy paste the DD matrix into excel but it would be far better to provide these projected final odds for everyone's benefit, not everyone knows how to do this in excel or if they do know how they might not want to carry a laptop with them to the track just for this purpose.
So with those two changes we'd really be getting somewhere. Still have to deal with the vet/drug problem but things are moving in the right direction IMO.
